Hunting the Elusive…
The existence of this creature remains at best controversial, with the bulk of the scientific community skeptical. The evidence so far put forward consists of photos and video that are either out-of-focus or at such a distance that definitive identification is not possible. Proponents focus on questionable analysis of minute details of their blurry videos in order to make their case, and excuse the lack of better evidence by that fact that their quarry is rare, wary, and lives only in the deep wilderness.
I am talking, of course, about the ivory-billed woodpecker.
The ivory-billed woodpecker is a larger cousin to the extant pileated woodpecker, but it was believed to have gone extinct in the 1940s. However, recent putative sightings have raised the possibility that a small population still persists in the deep swamps where they roam. In most of the videos and photographs shown so far the subject does appear to be a large woodpecker – but the question remains if the birds seen in these images are a pileated woodpecker or an ivory-billed. There are differences in markings and flying characteristics, but the fleeting and distant images do not allow for a clean distinction.
Birders are Skeptics
I became involved in a little bit of amateur birding over the last decade, as a fun project to do with my daughters. One thing that struck me when talking with more experienced birders is that there is a natural skepticism that pervades the birding culture. This makes sense, as the primary activity of birders is to identify these mostly-small animals in the wild based upon anecdotal evidence – people’s reports of what they heard and saw. There are also many birds that are easy to confuse with similar related birds, and it takes a practiced eye and ear often to distinguish them.
Further, birders keep track of what birds they have seen, and share their stories of rare bird sightings with pride. The so-called “life list” of birds seen is based on the honor system. So it is not surprising that a culture of skepticism has evolved among birders. It’s partly a way to educate each other, and for more experienced birders to school their greener companions. They exchange the best “field markings”, which are features that can easily be viewed in the field that are most helpful in identifying specific bird species. And of course, there is at times friendly but vigorous discussion about what kind and quality of evidence is necessary before concluding that a specific bird was sighted. The birding culture is complete with the recognition of how easy it is to be deceived by your eyes, of the effect of viewing conditions on the ability to identify field markings, and the effects of bias in wanting to add a rare bird to one’s life list.
There is also a willingness to be skeptical of the claims of others – no false politeness. When I was just getting started in birding I set a couple of bird feeders outside my kitchen window. For a while most of the birds that were coming to the feeder were new to me (since I knew so little about the local bird species). This further meant that I had no idea how common or rare a bird was when I first saw it. One morning just as I woke up I saw about five birds all of the same species that I had not seen before. They looked like blue-jays, but were not blue-jays (a species with which I was already very familiar). They were darker and lacked any white markings. I observed them at close range for a few minutes. I didn’t run to get my camera because it did not occur to me that they were rare – I figured I would be seeing them often at my feeder. And typically birds would have left by the time I got my camera ready, so I chose to spend the time observing them. This is a decision I would soon regret.
I then went to my trusty bird encyclopedia to find out which species I had just observed. After about an hour of pouring through the book I came to the conclusion that the birds must have been Steller’s jays – a species related to the blue jay. There was just one problem – Steller’s jay are native to the West coast of the US, not the East cost. But – they are occasionally seen as “accidentals” – as birds found outside of their native range. Sometimes they hitch a ride on a transcontinental jet, for example. I further concluded that I had seen an adult with their children, likely hybrids with a local blue jay.
The first time I told a more experienced birder that I saw five Steller’s jays near my home in Connecticut, without hesitation she looked at me and said, “No, you didn’t.” She applied a little bit of Occam’s razor and concluded that it is much more likely that an inexperienced new birder simply was mistaken about what he thought he saw than that he had an extremely rare (if not impossible) encounter with an accidental. I thought back to my decision to observe the birds rather than run for my camera and realized it was the wrong decision.
The Ivory-Billed Woodpecker
It is within this community of natural skeptics that claims of an even more unlikely bird sighting are being made – a species, rare and elusive when alive, and thought to be extinct for decades. The evidence coming forward is intriguing, but not compelling. Ornithologists have largely concluded that the photos and videos are of pileated woodpeckers, but believers do have some interesting details to point to that might suggest the ivory-billed is still around.
Now an amateur bird-hunter is throwing his evidence into the ring. Michael D Collins has produced a series of videos with audio that he claims is of a woodpecker too large and fast to be a pileated – and therefore the only other contender is the ivory-billed. He has spent the last year waiting in the swamps for the chance to glance this bird, and claims he has had ten sightings.
The problem is that his evidence is less than definitive. The video is generally out-of-focus or distant. He has done some careful analysis of the video to estimate size and speed, but such analyses are notoriously subject to bias. We have seen similar “detailed analyses” of Bigfoot photos, or UFO photos, looking at the tiny details that might suggest some feature which in turn would suggest that the subject is really a large primate or spaceship. Such exercises turn out to be little more than exercises in self-deception and confirmation bias. And they are no substitute for one high-quality photo or video.
My advice to Mr. Collins is to invest in a better camera and to learn how to use it. Now, I am all too familiar with how difficult it is to take photos or video of birds. Even large birds are still small creatures, that move fast and generally do not stay still for the camera. They are also skittish and don’t allow you to get very close. The solution, however, is the telephoto lens and a tripod.
It’s possible that there is a reason all of the photos and video of putative ivory-billed woodpeckers are blurry – because all the close and in-focus pictures can be clearly identified as not being an ivory-billed.
Collins himself is convinced he has seen the ivory-billed. He is quoted as saying:
“All these politics are very damaging. We should be saying, ‘OK, the bird exists, it’s just very difficult to observe. Now where are they? Where do they live? How can we save them?”
Sorry – wrong. It is premature to conclude that the bird exists, and to engage in “special pleading” that the low-quality evidence is due to the bird being difficult to observe. The alternate, and default, explanation is that it is impossible to observe, because it’s extinct. We need definitive evidence before we can conclude it still survives.
The plausibility here, however, is low but not extreme. We are not talking Bigfoot or the Loch Ness monster. The quest for the ivory-billed is perhaps more analogous to the coelocanth – a fish thought to be extinct until it was found in a fish market. I am willing to believe that the ivory-billed is still out there, clinging to survival. I hope it is, and I hope I get to see an unambiguous picture or video or one some day.
But until then it is best to remain skeptical, and not to jump to premature conclusions based upon ambiguous evidence.
And for the record – I did see Steller’s jays in my backyard in Connecticut (OK – at least I think I did, but I could be wrong). But even if I did, I would not expect anyone to believe me based upon my say so. I can only kick myself for being too inexperienced to even realize what I was looking at and to grab my camera. I still sit by the window sometimes looking at my bird feeder and hoping for another such rare encounter that will likely never come.
Steller’s Jay isn’t actually likely to go extinct any time soon. However, their habitat is the far west, so I’ll report for duty: I don’t believe you, just like you asked. <3
If you take birding seriously enough, you could set up a digital DVR surveillance system around your feeder. That way, you’ll never miss a rare photo op again. The images won’t be nearly the quality of a good camera, but at least you’ll know you have eyes on it 24/7.
Funny, I was just reading about hunting down the elusive Osama bin Laden.
I bet this will bring the “truthers” out of the woodwork.
Got one truther: The International Business Times
“Osama Bin Laden never charged for 911 – Inside Job likely”
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/140099/20110502/osama-bin-laden-never-charged-for-911-inside-job-likely-wtc7.htm
An hour ago, it was labeled “Opinion” but was not signed, and now it’s not labeled opinion. See it before it disappears.
Max, it’s also brought out the “deathers” who claim it wasn’t him who was killed.
They want to see the death certificate.
Long form? Short form won’t work, of course.
The photos? That’s a “pileated Osama.” No, that’s an “ivory-billed Osama.”
I guess the real question is “How much provisional evidence is/should be necessary to invest resources in conservation of a possibly extinct species?” Do we need a definitive sighting to begin protecting it’s habitat (if it’s not already protected)? It would be a real shame for it to have survived all of these decades and be lost now, when we may have been able to save it. It is possible that it has reached such a population bottleneck that it’s long term survival odds are incredibly low anyways.
Are stellar jays so rare? (I’m not a `birder’, obviously.) I’d seen them every year when I lived along-side a creek/riparian (oak, willow, cottonwood) vegetation at about 4,700 feet in the southeastern Sierra Nevada, tho they (mostly 2, but one year, 4) would only appear for a few weeks in late Spring, in the same area as the scrub jays, and then be gone. Perhaps when something becomes extinct in one place, it can, and does, survive in another…
Steller’s Jays are very common in my urban neighborhood in Seattle. Almost as big, but prettier than their more common relatives, the crows. Unfortunately the crows are their competitors, and the ones we see are usually just flying through:
http://www.seattleaudubon.org/birdweb/bird_details.aspx?id=310
Steve–When you’re in Vegas for TAM9, go up to Mt. Charleston northwest of Vegas. It’s high ponderosa forest, and it’s sure to be full of Stellar’s jays. They are very common in the San Gabriel Mountains right above us, and they occasionally come down to the foothills where we live (2000 foot elevation).
You could compare a known sighting to what you saw in your yard and at least confirm for yourself what you saw.
Blue jays are common where I live near Dallas,and I have seen them all my life.The 1st time that I encountered a Stellar’s jay,was in Oregon,during a hike,and I knew instantly that I was seeing something new to me,even though I am not that knowledgeable about birds.They are quite striking.
Spelled ‘Steller’s jay’,apparently.
I have studied the Bigfoot evidence carefully. I have seen the films and the photos, read the eyewitness accounts and gone through accounts and photos of the other physical evidence and I have come to a definitive conclusion: Bigfoot is actually an alien spacecraft under intelligent control.
Of course the notion of Ivory-bill persistence is based on a lot more than Dr. Collins’ claims, or analysis of blurry videos. But for definitive evidence the straightforward solution is to locate a roost- or nest-hole that the bird returns to each day, though difficult to do in 10’s of 1000’s of acres of forest.
It’s not an ivory-billed; claims like this one have been out there, and shot down, for five years or more.
Move along, and don’t waste skeptical blog posts on old news.
What follows is completely anecdotal. Take it for what it’s worth.
I grew up in a very, very rural area. Surrounded by miles and miles of Louisiana wood and swamp is hiking distance away. I would have been in my early teens, possibly a bit younger. Some time in the late 80’s early 90’s.
We had a nest of Ivory Billed Woodpeckers in our “back yard”. By that, I mean about a one or two hundred yard hike into the woods. They had a couple of chicks. There wasn’t any problem observing them as all you had to do is walk out there, sit, and be patient for bit. We compared to entries in nature books and woodpeckers were not uncommon, so we weren’t unfamiliar with them. There were also Pileated in the area. None of us were ornithologists, but as I said there was no problem watching them as much or as long as you wished. . . . and the markings are quite distinctive. A huge woodpecker with a white bill is not very subtle.
The Ivory was supposed to be extinct at that time too. I wanted to call important people and let them know. My father cautioned that perhaps we should leave well enough alone and let them do their thing unmolested. We had a lot of lumbering in the region and though they hadn’t been active in our immediate area for quite some time as the trees were not ready for harvesting, I wanted to alert the local wildlife services.
My father wasn’t adamantly opposed or anything, so eventually I did make the call. They person I spoke with expressed interest and said they’d send someone out to confirm. However, we never heard from wild life services. What we did hear was the clear cutting of the area we’d reported as being the location of the nest. The area they clear cut wasn’t even part of a managed tree farm area and was mostly old growth oaks and native flora.
We called wildlife services again, but they said they had no record of my prior call and that there wasn’t anything to be done now that the trees had been cleared.
There’s no way I’ll ever know the truth of the matter. Whether we were just blown off by some apathetic or unbelieving public employee and everything was just pure coincidence or not. We never thought to take pictures. None of us were shutter bugs and why would you take a picture of something you could just walk 5m and look at for real?
While I’m as confident as someone can be of a personal eye witness experience that included multiple, prolonged sightings and cross referencing with available books and photography, I understand it has no bearing on it’s generally acceptable validity.
Oh, my father was an artist too (drawing, oil, water color, sculpture). He drew a lot of pictures of the animals around our house at the time, including birds…no idea where they are. That may add a tad bit of cred to his ability to distinguish the two.
Your story is a familiar one. Many similar reports of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers within the historic range have received no follow-up. The Collins paper has generated a similar account from someone in Florida – a sighting of a female not far from Highlands Hammock State Park, the location of some of the last generally accepted sightings in the state. The person notified the Audubon Society, but there appears to have been no follow-up.
I’m part of a group of independent searchers working in Louisiana. We’d be very interested in getting more details about your report and observations, including location and anything else you care to share. You can visit our website for contact info and to view the data we’ve gathered; we acknowledge that it is not conclusive. Your information may be helpful.
Steve wasn’t saying Steller’s Jays are near extinction, I don’t know how anyone got that from his comments. They’re just very rare here on the East Coast.
Well, unless there is a bird I do not know about that looks like a Stellar Jay, for which you could easily mistake as one, I tend to believe you. We have allot of these birds here on the Canadian west coast, and they are very distinctive. If you could accurately describe it, that would be good enough for me. It is after all only a bird and one that is known to exist. Its not like you saw big foot bird.
What did birders do before everyone had a Camera? Did they take other birders at there word for what they saw? were they honest?
Mike – another thought has occurred to me. It could have just been what birders call a “wierdo” – a anomalous variant. I have several of these in my back yard, including a cardinal with partial leucism (with nice pictures). And I have also captured a black-capped female yellow-bellied sapsucker. This is a rare variant, and it took none other than David Sibley to make the ID (I still have the e-mail).
So perhaps this was a blue Jay weird variant.
But you’re right -before cameras it must have been maddening. This one case is extremely frustrating.
I don’t understand what the fuss is about. It’s a woodpecker. Does it taste like chicken?
If you’re going to take the time to post on this topic, it might be worthwhile to do some fact checking. You claimed that I ruled out Pileated Woodpecker based on size. That’s not true. There is an estimate for a lower bound on the wingspan that rules out smaller species. This bound and the flap style rule out all species native to Louisiana other than the two large woodpeckers. You claimed that the estimate of flight speed is “notoriously subject to bias.” It’s actually straightforward to measure the flight speed since there are many fixed reference objects in the video, the bird and its reflection are visible, and the time between frames in NTSC video is known. Anyone who wishes to check on my estimate of the flight speed is welcome to visit the site.
I do know how to use a camera, and in fact I have obtained better footage of this bird than everyone else combined. I wish anyone willing to try the best of luck in obtaining better footage, but you better be willing to spend years in the swamp and to have your video camera running at all times. Be prepared to spend countless hours at stakeouts in weather that ranges from a miserable cold and damp to an unbearable hot and humid. Be prepared for mishaps such as capsizing a kayak in cold water, falling and breaking a bone, or getting lost and running out of water on a hot day. I hope your knees aren’t too old to handle the stress of hiking through miles of deep mud (mine are, but I kept going even after tearing the meniscus in my left knee). And I hope you don’t mind bushwhacking through miles of blackberry thickets, and frequent close encounters with venomous snakes and gators. Are you willing to take risks, such as climbing tall trees alone deep in the swamp? If you’re not willing to do these things, then go ahead and sit in front of your computers and keep making posting silly comments about those who do.
Mike,
Thanks for leaving a comment. No one is diminishing the time and dedication you have put into the hunt for the ivory-billed, and I sure hope you capture great footage one day. I would love for this bird to still be alive.
But – if you want to get in the game of science and be taken seriously, then you have to grow a thick skin about criticism. That is the nature of science. If you dismiss your critics, you will lose the respect of the scientific community.
You cannot just dismiss a critical assessment of your evidence as “silly comments” by those “sitting in front of their computers.” For whatever reason, the photos you provide are not unambiguous and they are not definitive. Your analysis is interesting – but not compelling.
The skeptical community has a vast collective experience evaluating these very types of claims, and we are expert in all the various and subtle forms of self-deception that occur in science.
If you have something substantive to say about my analysis, go ahead. If you want to just dismiss such analysis rather than deal with it, then you cannot blame others for thinking that perhaps you don’t want to be taken seriously as a real scientist.
Novella on Dr. Oz. “The evidence overwhelmingly shows that acupuncture in fact does not work.”
From the World Health Organization (WHO): “trials, convincing reports, based on sound research methodology, have been published.” (htt p://ap ps.who.int/medicinedocs/en/d/Js4926e/6.html).
Novella ignores and dismisses evidence in favor of his opinion and supposed “science-based medicine.” No more be said. Period.
Yay, Novella!