My hypothesis is there’s no need to disprove an imaginary thing, which we have absolutely no factual knowledge of, because the probability of its existence is in principle nil. Having no factual knowledge means the possibilities are endless or without constraints. The probability that one possibility is true out of an infinite number of possibilities is one divided by infinity equals zero. There’s a need to prove or at least gain some factual knowledge of the imaginary thing to make its probability non-zero.

A good example is dark matter. It is also an imaginary thing but our factual knowledge is not zero. We know something about dark matter like it has mass because it exerts gravitational force to the stars; it is not luminous because we cannot see it with optical telescopes; it does not emit strong or any electromagnetic waves because we cannot detect it with radio telescopes; its mass cannot exceed the total mass of the universe; it is made up of natural matters that obey the laws of physics, etc. In short, there are constraints to dark matter hence the possibilities are finite and the probability is non-zero. In contrast, everything we know about God is not factual but completely speculative, the product of pure imaginations.

If my hypothesis is wrong, then Pascal’s Wager is valid and Pascal was correct in saying that it is better to bet that God exists because the infinite reward (eternal life) far outweighs the small (but non-zero) probability that God is real. The expected reward value of Pascal’s Wager if God has non-zero probability is infinite because infinity multiplied by any positive number (no matter how small) equals infinity. Even if we subtract the cost of believing as Richard Dawkins suggested, the expected reward value is still infinity because infinity minus any finite number (cost of believing) equals infinity.

I believe my hypothesis is correct but I welcome scientists, mathematicians or anyone to challenge it so we can come up with a better hypothesis. If you want to know how I disprove Pascal’s Wager, read on.

Pascal’s Wager says the infinite reward to be gained by believing in God far outweighs the low probability of his existence so it’s better to bet that he is than to bet that he is not. Pascal’s Wager can be simulated by drawing an object from a jar. A black ball represents God. If you draw a black ball, you win an infinite reward. If the jar contains one white ball and one black ball, the probability of drawing the black ball (God exists) is ½. The problem is we don’t know what’s inside the jar. It could be empty (probability of God is zero) or it could contain any object (many possibilities, low probability).

So we have to postulate the possible content of the jar. If this is a real draw in the real world, we can limit the possibilities to any object that exists on earth and can fit inside the jar. However, Pascal’s Wager is not a real draw, it is an imaginary draw. God itself is not a real object that fits the description “any object that exists on earth and can fit inside the jar.” Hence, the imaginary jar can contain any imaginary object. If I assign a positive number to each object I can imagine, the number of possible imaginary objects would be as many as the set of counting numbers, which is endless or infinite. Therefore, the probability of drawing a black ball under this scenario is one divided by infinity equals zero. The magnitude of the reward is irrelevant because the probability of winning is zero thus the expected reward value is always zero.

Pascal’s Wager dissolves into nothingness, which is hardly surprising since this whole game is just a figment of Pascal’s imagination. The conclusion is you cannot gain anything by merely imagining it. The mathematics may be deceptive like the Monty Hall problem but the conclusion is plain common sense.

Karl Marx and Friedrich Nietzsche held that religion is opium because it destroys the mind. However, opium is also a pain killing medicine. Moderate dosage can kill pain. Over dosage can kill you. Same is true with religion. Scores of people swear that God healed them, at least emotionally. Scores of people also got killed in the name of God. Throughout history, much more people had been killed in the name of God than in the name of Satan. But this is hardly the fault of God, especially a non-existent one. Humans were doing all the killings. It’s like blaming opium for opium addiction. Like opium, religion is awesome as it is dangerous.