<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Predicting More Predictions</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/</link>
	<description>The official blog of the Skeptologists</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 12 Feb 2012 15:44:42 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>By: games</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-5069</link>
		<dc:creator>games</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Apr 2009 01:22:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-5069</guid>
		<description>I just wanted to say that I love this site</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just wanted to say that I love this site</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: DanielB</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-793</link>
		<dc:creator>DanielB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:47:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-793</guid>
		<description>My favorite thing to do to examine events like Jim&#039;s prophecy is to lay out the premise and compare with with a skeptical hypothesis.

Jim is saying that his dreams either had access to future information, or chromosomal information about the contents of a uterus, 4 out of 5 times.  Or 5 out of 5, if you hold the popular belief that lesbians are men.  To do this, there would have to be cellular level remote viewing phenomena using some kind of undetectable energy, or traditional psychic magic.  

Let&#039;s compare that premise with a skeptical alternative, which would be that Jim is lucky.  I don&#039;t think it&#039;s off the table that Jim simply remembers being lucky and was not.

Jim dreams nightly, and remembers the dreams that are significant.  While your wife was pregnant the first time, dreaming about the child&#039;s sex was significant.  You were right, and there was a 1 in 2 chance (50/50) of that.

Due to the success, it became very significant for you to make a predictive dream.  After a single predictive dream for each pregnancy, it was no longer as significant because you already made a prediction.  Therefore I suggest it is reasonable to assume you there was an extremely high likelihood of a unique predictive dream each 9 month period.  That&#039;s back to the 1 in 32; the only unique event here is that Jim made a big deal out of the first prediction.

No magic is required at all.

Honestly, I dreamed about having my daughter before I knew her sex, and though I have no data, I bet it&#039;s extremely common.  I dreamed my second kid will be a boy named Simon.  I&#039;ll let you know how that turns out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My favorite thing to do to examine events like Jim&#8217;s prophecy is to lay out the premise and compare with with a skeptical hypothesis.</p>
<p>Jim is saying that his dreams either had access to future information, or chromosomal information about the contents of a uterus, 4 out of 5 times.  Or 5 out of 5, if you hold the popular belief that lesbians are men.  To do this, there would have to be cellular level remote viewing phenomena using some kind of undetectable energy, or traditional psychic magic.  </p>
<p>Let&#8217;s compare that premise with a skeptical alternative, which would be that Jim is lucky.  I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s off the table that Jim simply remembers being lucky and was not.</p>
<p>Jim dreams nightly, and remembers the dreams that are significant.  While your wife was pregnant the first time, dreaming about the child&#8217;s sex was significant.  You were right, and there was a 1 in 2 chance (50/50) of that.</p>
<p>Due to the success, it became very significant for you to make a predictive dream.  After a single predictive dream for each pregnancy, it was no longer as significant because you already made a prediction.  Therefore I suggest it is reasonable to assume you there was an extremely high likelihood of a unique predictive dream each 9 month period.  That&#8217;s back to the 1 in 32; the only unique event here is that Jim made a big deal out of the first prediction.</p>
<p>No magic is required at all.</p>
<p>Honestly, I dreamed about having my daughter before I knew her sex, and though I have no data, I bet it&#8217;s extremely common.  I dreamed my second kid will be a boy named Simon.  I&#8217;ll let you know how that turns out.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: The Blind Watchmaker</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-774</link>
		<dc:creator>The Blind Watchmaker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Nov 2008 15:11:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-774</guid>
		<description>@ Jim Brock,

&quot;There are things, as it is said, in this world that are stranger than the eye can see or the brain imagine.&quot;

Classic &quot;Argument from Personal Incredulity&quot;.

The fact that you tend to dream about such things increases the odds that you will continue to do so. Dreaming about a future child is not random chance. It is human.

What is so hard to imagine, really? The odds are pretty good that many would have the same experience, then assign some significance to it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Jim Brock,</p>
<p>&#8220;There are things, as it is said, in this world that are stranger than the eye can see or the brain imagine.&#8221;</p>
<p>Classic &#8220;Argument from Personal Incredulity&#8221;.</p>
<p>The fact that you tend to dream about such things increases the odds that you will continue to do so. Dreaming about a future child is not random chance. It is human.</p>
<p>What is so hard to imagine, really? The odds are pretty good that many would have the same experience, then assign some significance to it.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Jim Brock</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-708</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim Brock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 02:47:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-708</guid>
		<description>BTW: In figuring the odds, how do we factor in the number of dreams that do not concern the sex of children in utero? That is, what are the odds of HAVING such a dream at all, or having five of them, each one specific and accurate, with no such dreams being inaccurate. Assuming that in a nine month period I would have slept roughly 270 times, with maybe rem dreams twice or three times a night, seems the odds are a helluva lot less than one in thirty two. Five out of 540, or 810? With the odds at n x p x q x...(with n, p andq being the odds of each event) seems that the  whole thing gets long odds.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BTW: In figuring the odds, how do we factor in the number of dreams that do not concern the sex of children in utero? That is, what are the odds of HAVING such a dream at all, or having five of them, each one specific and accurate, with no such dreams being inaccurate. Assuming that in a nine month period I would have slept roughly 270 times, with maybe rem dreams twice or three times a night, seems the odds are a helluva lot less than one in thirty two. Five out of 540, or 810? With the odds at n x p x q x&#8230;(with n, p andq being the odds of each event) seems that the  whole thing gets long odds.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Jim Brock</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-707</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim Brock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 02:34:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-707</guid>
		<description>Guys: I tole ya it was a long time ago. A LONG time ago. And I did tell my wife the morning after each dream. Like I said, still seems strange to me that (1) I would have such a dream repetitively and (2) that they were invariably accurate.

There are things, as it is said, in this world that are stranger than the eye can see or the brain imagine.

I am a skeptic, but...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Guys: I tole ya it was a long time ago. A LONG time ago. And I did tell my wife the morning after each dream. Like I said, still seems strange to me that (1) I would have such a dream repetitively and (2) that they were invariably accurate.</p>
<p>There are things, as it is said, in this world that are stranger than the eye can see or the brain imagine.</p>
<p>I am a skeptic, but&#8230;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: The Blind Watchmaker</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-667</link>
		<dc:creator>The Blind Watchmaker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2008 01:24:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-667</guid>
		<description>@JIM

I agree with the above. Some other things to consider.

1 in 32 chance (for predicting 5 children&#039;s sexes correctly) is better odds than rolling a double six on any given backgammon roll. Most of us have done this many, many times.

If you consider that many, many people likely make predictions about the sex of their future children, then it is highly likely that occasionally someone will get 5 in a row. That person will then attribute some significance to this random event.

This is similar to the &quot;Myth of the Hot Hand&quot; in basketball (see Thomas Gilovich&#039;s excellent book, &quot;How We Know What isn&#039;t So, the Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life&quot;)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@JIM</p>
<p>I agree with the above. Some other things to consider.</p>
<p>1 in 32 chance (for predicting 5 children&#8217;s sexes correctly) is better odds than rolling a double six on any given backgammon roll. Most of us have done this many, many times.</p>
<p>If you consider that many, many people likely make predictions about the sex of their future children, then it is highly likely that occasionally someone will get 5 in a row. That person will then attribute some significance to this random event.</p>
<p>This is similar to the &#8220;Myth of the Hot Hand&#8221; in basketball (see Thomas Gilovich&#8217;s excellent book, &#8220;How We Know What isn&#8217;t So, the Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life&#8221;)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Josh</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-666</link>
		<dc:creator>Josh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2008 00:48:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-666</guid>
		<description>@ Jim
Further on the circumstances of your predictions:
Firstly, did you specifically state your prediction at the time to somebody else, or did you only recall it later? Dreams, your recollection of them, and your memories of your thoughts while waking up are notoriously unreliable. If you didnt explicitly get a reliable witness its possible you dreamt one thing, but later at the time of the birth you only had partial memory of the dream and your &quot;memory&quot; was fabricated by your mind to fit your new knowledge.
Secondly, what exactly were the circumstances when your predicted your friend&#039;s child? Did you know at the time of the dream exactly who the prediction referred to, or only dream that &quot;somebody is having a girl&quot;? There is potential here for confirmation bias - if more than one birth occurs within a reasonable timeframe, you may be falsely recalling the specific person who was the subject of the prediction.
And finally, the dreams could be correct, but with a biological explanation. For example, iirc there are links between sexual determination and maternal hormone levels, and you could have picking up on those hormone levels through various cues.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Jim<br />
Further on the circumstances of your predictions:<br />
Firstly, did you specifically state your prediction at the time to somebody else, or did you only recall it later? Dreams, your recollection of them, and your memories of your thoughts while waking up are notoriously unreliable. If you didnt explicitly get a reliable witness its possible you dreamt one thing, but later at the time of the birth you only had partial memory of the dream and your &#8220;memory&#8221; was fabricated by your mind to fit your new knowledge.<br />
Secondly, what exactly were the circumstances when your predicted your friend&#8217;s child? Did you know at the time of the dream exactly who the prediction referred to, or only dream that &#8220;somebody is having a girl&#8221;? There is potential here for confirmation bias &#8211; if more than one birth occurs within a reasonable timeframe, you may be falsely recalling the specific person who was the subject of the prediction.<br />
And finally, the dreams could be correct, but with a biological explanation. For example, iirc there are links between sexual determination and maternal hormone levels, and you could have picking up on those hormone levels through various cues.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Max</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-651</link>
		<dc:creator>Max</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Nov 2008 06:59:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-651</guid>
		<description>Jim, I checked that the sonogram was invented by the 60&#039;s before posting my reply, but I didn&#039;t check how sonograms were used at the time.

The probability of guessing one baby&#039;s sex is about one in two. The probability for five babies in a row is one in 32.
Coming up with predictions while dreaming is just as meaningless as coming up with them while drunk. A guess made in an altered state of consciousness is still a guess.

Last time I checked, scientists were saying that homosexuality is 30% genetic and 70% environmental. How much of the environmental factor is inside the womb and how much is upbringing I don&#039;t know, but I&#039;d bet that upbringing plays a role, especially for girls. But I digress.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jim, I checked that the sonogram was invented by the 60&#8242;s before posting my reply, but I didn&#8217;t check how sonograms were used at the time.</p>
<p>The probability of guessing one baby&#8217;s sex is about one in two. The probability for five babies in a row is one in 32.<br />
Coming up with predictions while dreaming is just as meaningless as coming up with them while drunk. A guess made in an altered state of consciousness is still a guess.</p>
<p>Last time I checked, scientists were saying that homosexuality is 30% genetic and 70% environmental. How much of the environmental factor is inside the womb and how much is upbringing I don&#8217;t know, but I&#8217;d bet that upbringing plays a role, especially for girls. But I digress.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Jim Brock</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-649</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim Brock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Nov 2008 02:38:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-649</guid>
		<description>Well, Max, this was a long time ago, before the use of sonograms to determine sex. And it wasn&#039;t simply a series of guesses, it was a series of dreams...one only each time. Still sounds strange to me.

I wonder about the odds being one in thirty two. Each time this might be the odds, but five in a row?

 Did I mention that the other four dreams were very specific as to sex? Only in one case was the dream less than determinative. 

I don&#039;t subscribe to the theory that homosexuals are created by environment, and I don&#039;t think modern science does either.

And there were NO wrong &quot;guesses&quot;, ie dreams. Each time the dream was revealed to others before the child was born. You can believe it or don&#039;t, as the saying goes. Still a strange experience, not repeated since.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, Max, this was a long time ago, before the use of sonograms to determine sex. And it wasn&#8217;t simply a series of guesses, it was a series of dreams&#8230;one only each time. Still sounds strange to me.</p>
<p>I wonder about the odds being one in thirty two. Each time this might be the odds, but five in a row?</p>
<p> Did I mention that the other four dreams were very specific as to sex? Only in one case was the dream less than determinative. </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t subscribe to the theory that homosexuals are created by environment, and I don&#8217;t think modern science does either.</p>
<p>And there were NO wrong &#8220;guesses&#8221;, ie dreams. Each time the dream was revealed to others before the child was born. You can believe it or don&#8217;t, as the saying goes. Still a strange experience, not repeated since.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Max</title>
		<link>http://www.skepticblog.org/2008/11/08/predicting-more-predictions/#comment-637</link>
		<dc:creator>Max</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Nov 2008 16:18:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://skepticblog.org/?p=334#comment-637</guid>
		<description>I expected to get some grief for my silly answer to Jim. Here&#039;s the serious answer:
1. Did you go on record with your predictions before you, or better yet, before anyone knew the sex of the child from a sonogram?
2. The lesbian kid is kind of tricky. At first, that prediction sounds more specific than the other ones, but if &quot;a boy, but it&#039;s unclear&quot; covers lesbians, then it also covers boys, gays, and other gender-benders, which is LESS specific.
3. Did you neglect to mention any wrong guesses you made?
4. If your story holds up, then the probability of guessing the sex of five children is about one in 32. How many one-in-32 events happen in your life? Guessing one right ain&#039;t exactly winning the lottery.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I expected to get some grief for my silly answer to Jim. Here&#8217;s the serious answer:<br />
1. Did you go on record with your predictions before you, or better yet, before anyone knew the sex of the child from a sonogram?<br />
2. The lesbian kid is kind of tricky. At first, that prediction sounds more specific than the other ones, but if &#8220;a boy, but it&#8217;s unclear&#8221; covers lesbians, then it also covers boys, gays, and other gender-benders, which is LESS specific.<br />
3. Did you neglect to mention any wrong guesses you made?<br />
4. If your story holds up, then the probability of guessing the sex of five children is about one in 32. How many one-in-32 events happen in your life? Guessing one right ain&#8217;t exactly winning the lottery.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>

